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Bajemos la temperatura - Por qué se debe evitar un planeta 4°C más cálido

The World Bank via Coursera

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Overview

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Given existing commitments, it is likely that the world looks doomed to a warming of 4 degrees Celsius by the end of this century and 2 degrees Celsius by 2040. This course massively open online MOOC (for its acronym in English) brings together renowned scientists in order to provide a summary of the most recent scientific evidence and present an analysis of possible future impacts and risks, focusing on developing countries. The course provides a historical account of observed changes in the climate system and its impacts, its relationship to increased emissions of carbon dioxide, the corresponding increases in temperature, melting glaciers and changes in patterns of precipitation. This course also offers different projections predict an increase in droughts, heat waves and sea level rise along the XXI century, with its implications for food security and water security and the potential impacts on agriculture, water availability, ecosystems and human health. This MOOC presents an analysis of the impacts of eventual warming of 4 degrees Celsius and emphasizes the need for both policy makers and communities seriously consider their options for adaptation to climate change, stressing the need for mitigation measures urgently. Participants will also have the opportunity to understand the risks involved reaching irreversible tipping points, such as the disintegration of the ice in the western Antarctic or death and reverse scale of the Amazon jungle. The course concludes with a discussion of the main options and existing and necessary to prevent exceeding 2 degrees Celsius warming policy alternatives. In the case of Latin America, the extremely high temperatures and changing rainfall patterns have adverse effects on agricultural productivity , hydrological regimes and biodiversity. In Brazil, a warming of 2 degrees Celsius could reduce crop yields by up to 70 percent for soybean and up to 50 percent for wheat 2050. Acidification of the oceans, sea ​​level rise, tropical cyclones and temperature changes greatly affect coastal habitats, tourism, health and food and water security. In addition, the melting of glaciers would endanger the Andean cities. The economy could be severely damaged by climate change, inevitably affecting society in general and the most disadvantaged in particular. By 2050, if a heating 4 degrees Celsius in Latin America, coastal flooding and storms could cause losses of about 22 000 million, essentially related to infrastructure damage and loss should occur in the Tourist sector.


Syllabus

SUMMARY
The following summary presents the main issues that will cover this course and provides a compendium of the greatest impacts and challenges of a planet 4 degrees Celsius warmer. 1st week - observed climate changes and their impacts throughout history This module summarizes the changes observed throughout history in the climate system that have led us to this situation and climate impacts that today is mainly attributed to the hand of man. In this module, increasing emissions of greenhouse gases since preindustrial times examines the link between CO2 concentrations and rising global average temperature, heat buildup in the oceans rise explained sea ​​level and some questions regarding certain scientific evidence arise. Finally, it also describes the increasing loss of ice in Greenland and Antarctica, sea ice in the Arctic, the gradual melting of mountain glaciers, more frequent heat waves, increased extreme temperatures and increasing propensity to suffering from severe droughts and extreme aridity. 2nd week - Possible climates in the XXI century This module provides an overview of projected changes in climate until the end of the century. Describe the probability of a world 4 degrees Celsius warmer in 2100 and allows a deeper understanding of the various existing climate models, different projections and the uncertainty around certain key areas. Also check possible reactions of natural systems, explaining how projected climate changes, from a warming of 2 degrees Celsius warming of 4 degrees Celsius would cause sea level rise, heat waves, extreme temperatures and acidification of the oceans. 3rd week - Life in a world 4 degrees Celsius warmer This module provides an overview of the current impacts of climate change and projected in different fundamental systems that we depend upon, such as agriculture , food production, water resources, ecosystems, biodiversity and human health. Each of these systems will be negatively affected by climate change in a scenario with 4 degrees Celsius, causing negative consequences for development such as decreased crop yields (which in turn threatens food production and human) health, loss of biodiversity, the spread of vector and shortages of waterborne diseases. This module also highlights the risks of nonlinear impacts and impacts on chain as well as the risk of exceeding critical thresholds corresponding to irreversible tipping points, which greatly increase vulnerability to climate change and development submitted to multiple pressures . unsustainable Week 4 - What can we do about it? The choice is yours (debate) After presenting the latest scientific evidence on previous modules, this last module goes beyond reporting Let's go down the temperature and opens a debate on what mitigation and adaptation are necessary to prevent the World 4 warmer and how to reduce vulnerability to climate impacts and develop an adequate resilience to climate change Celsius. Since there is no single policy or alternative to help us solve the climate problem, in this module different perspectives on what to do at global, national and subnational levels will be shared as well as individually, to converge towards a model development with lower emissions and greater resilience to the effects of climate change. Through discussion and exposure of the various arguments and reasons to act now, act together and act differently, the module provides examples of policies to mitigate and adapt to climate change and the benefits to be obtained from them considering the impact related to the reduction of emissions and opportunities for local development. the 5th week: Regional Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean and developmental effects Based on the scientific conclusions of the third report in the series Let's go down the temperature in this module trends and climate impacts on key development in the Latin American and Caribbean areas will be explored. In the module potential impacts of current warming (0.8 ° C) and projections of 2 degrees Celsius and 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures in agricultural production, water resources are examined, ecosystem services and coastal vulnerability to populations of the region. In some regions, these risks could eventually derail the progress achieved with great effort in development, you left trapped in poverty for millions of people, underscoring the urgent need to act accordingly. Depending on your particular interest and their knowledge, can choose between one of two alternatives.

















  • Alternative 1: Climate Champions
  • Alternative 2: Leadership and climate change policies

Alternative 1: Climate Champions

Recipients
The alternative "climate champions" is suitable for anyone with an interest in climate change. Provides information on available scientific evidence and results that explain climate change and provides a unique opportunity to further expand their knowledge on the subject.

Common goal
Understand the observed changes in the climate system, its causes and immediate consequences and impacts projected medium and long-term development.

Specific objectives of each path
Describe the climate context with the current level of warming of 0.8 ° C and show how projected changes in temperature (with a warming of 2 ° C to 4 ° C) may affect systems such as agriculture, water resources, ecosystems and human health.

Aware how personal lifestyle and daily contributes to changes in the climate system and share the steps everyone can take to reduce their impact on the climate or carbon footprint.

Tasks
    • The tasks focus on providing a basic understanding of the latest scientific results.
    • You will learn to apply their knowledge to their daily lives and have a positive impact in the fight against climate change.


Alternative 2: Leadership and climate change policies

Recipients
The alternative "leadership and climate change policies" will allow you to make contact with others in similar positions around the world (eg. Legislators, staff of provincial and national governments, civil society representatives and academics) and create new networks of mutual cooperation and best practices related to climate change.

Common goal
Understand the observed changes in the climate system, its causes and immediate consequences and impacts projected medium and long-term development.

Specific objectives of each path
Critically interpret different climate projections and show how these changes projected temperature (with a warming of 2 ° C to 4 ° C) could affect sectors such as agriculture, water resources, ecosystems and human health.

Discuss and distinguish the different policy alternatives appropriate for countries and organizations can implement to help mitigate climate change and adapt to it.

Tasks
    • The tasks are mainly focused on the different possible policy interventions in different sectors which urgently need action to tackle climate change. The course will also help you make contact with others in positions similar to yours.
    • It will be able to apply the knowledge acquired in their country, considering its political context.
Connect

Communicate and share resources through Twitter using the hashtag #wbclima . Sign up for a free account at http://twitter.com .

Taught by

Pablo Benitez and Erick Fernandes

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