This course explores the concept of uncertainty over the probability of victory as a factor leading to war. By delving into modeling uncertainty over power and analyzing interdependent war payoffs, students will learn how to solve decision-making problems and visualize optimal demands in different scenarios. The course aims to help learners understand the risk-return tradeoff in bargaining situations. The intended audience for this course includes individuals interested in conflict studies, international relations, and political science.
Overview
Syllabus
How Uncertainty Caused War Previously.
What Is Uncertainty over Power?.
Modeling Uncertainty over Power.
Interdependent War Payoffs.
Solving the Informed Actor's Decision.
Visualizing the Informed Actor's Decision.
Solving for the Proposer's Optimal Demand.
Very Small Demands.
Very Large Demands.
Middling Demands.
Why the Optimal Demand Must Not Guarantee War.
The Risk-Return Tradeoff.
Taught by
William Spaniel
